Tropical Disturbance 1
What we know:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?
Formation chance through 48 hours: Near 0 percent (Low).
Formation chance through 5 days: 50 percent (Medium).