[Update 10/23/2020 3:00PM]:
Tropical Disturbance 1
What we know:
Satellite images and radar data indicate that the broad area of low pressure located just west of Grand Cayman Island is gradually becoming better defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression will likely form during the next day or two while the low drifts toward the northwest. The system could move near western Cuba by Sunday and move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the weekend.
What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?
Formation chance through 48 hours: 70 percent (Medium).
Formation chance through 5 days: 70 percent (Medium).